Decision Making in Action
How do people actually make decisions?
Real-World Problem Solving
Most people assume that the best decision-makers are people who think logically, weigh pros and cons, and carefully analyze the consequences of every option before making a final determination. This logical approach sounds reasonable—until you consider the complexities of the real world. Most decisions don’t happen under ideal conditions, with perfect information.
At ShadowBox, we have studied expert decision making and found that experts think differently.
They tend to make sense of situations and act based on experience, intuition, and pattern recognition—especially when they face uncertainty and time pressure. Psychologist Gary Klein and colleagues developed the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model to capture how experts think and decide in the real world.
Recognition Primed Decision (RPD) Model
The Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model explains how people make effective decisions in real-world situations—especially when time is short and conditions are uncertain. Rather than comparing multiple options, experienced decision-makers recognize patterns in the environment that match previous situations from their experience. That recognition triggers a possible course of action that has worked in the past. They then mentally simulate how it might play out—if it looks like it’ll work, they go with it; if not, they adjust. RPD shows that good decisions often come not from deliberate analysis, but from intuitive pattern-matching shaped by experience.
How Does Shadowbox apply RPD?
At ShadowBox, RPD underpins the work that we do to help people make better, faster decisions in complex environments. Our scenarios help learners add patterns to their experience base, and we annotate them with expert insights to enhance their power. We work with experts in your domain to identify the specific skills and strategies that define “good” decision making in each domain.
Check out some of our previous work that demonstrate how we have applied RPD training across a variety of domains:
Data-Frame Theory of Sensemaking
The Data/Frame theory of sensemaking describes how we interpret and make sense of complex, ambiguous situations by fitting incoming information (data) into mental models or “frames” that shape our understanding. When new data doesn’t fit our current frame, we either adjust the frame or look for new data to support it. This dynamic process helps us quickly build a coherent picture out of chaos. Instead of passively collecting facts, we actively frame what we see, constantly testing and revising our understanding to guide action. It’s how experts stay flexible and effective in uncertain environments.
The Cognitive Dimension
Sensemaking and Decision making are only two key gears in a much larger engine. To explore the full range of cognitive skills essential to effective performance, take a closer look at the Cognitive Dimension.
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RPD vs the Ooda Loop
We have many people ask us about the differences between the RPD and another model, the Ooda Loop. Check out this blog by our CEO John Schmitt to learn more!
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